:Product: 20010811RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 9566 (N17W72) produced several C-class flares during the period. This region has continued to develop and is currently a Dao beta-gamma delta configuration. There was a long duration C2 event at 11/0640 UTC with no optical reports observed. Two new regions were numbered today as Regions 9575 (N11E73) and 9576 (N12W53). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. One active period was observed at high latitudes at 10/2100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event on 10 August ended at 10/1440 UTC. The event began at 10/1020 UTC and had a peak flux of 17 pfu at 10/1020 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor to major storm conditions for 12 August. Active to minor storm conditions are possible for 13 August with unsettled to active conditions on 14 August. This activity is due to a high speed coronal hole stream and the 09 August partial halo CME. III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug Class M 40/40/30 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Aug 165 Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 050/050-030/030-010/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/15 Minor storm 30/15/05 Major-severe storm 20/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/30/20 Minor storm 35/25/10 Major-severe storm 20/20/05