:Product: 20010813RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Most flare activity was optically uncorrelated, including the largest event, a C4.6 flare at 13/1405 UTC. Region 9574 (S05W38) produced the only optically correlated event for the period, a C1/Sf at 13/1921 UTC. This region has exhibited a moderate increase in magnetic complexity, and is currently the largest active region on the disk, now in an Eki/beta-gamma configuration with 20 spots and 370 millionths areal coverage. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9574 is a potential source of isolated moderate-level flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels, due to the ongoing influence of yesterday's shock passage from the CME activity of 09 August. Some additional influence from a weak high speed stream appears to have also developed over the past 12 hours, with mainly unsettled conditions occurring over that period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, then tapering off to quiet to unsettled conditions thereafter, as the combined influence of CME passage and weak high speed stream effects wane during the course of the period. III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Aug 152 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 015/015-012/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/15 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01