:Product: 20010814RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low, with the largest event being an impulsive C9 flare, associated with an eruptive prominence on the east limb near N40, at 14/0944 UTC. There was also a long duration C2 event, with associations to a disappearing filament near N26W10, as well as a sympathetic subfaint flare in spotless plage Region 9577 (N16W36), at 14/1242 UTC. A full halo CME was evident in SOHO/LASCO imagery following this event. Two new regions were numbered today: 9579 (S17W10) and 9580 (N24E73). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with an isolated chance for moderate flare activity from Region 9574 (S04W61), or from closely spaced regions 9570 (S10W47) and 9578 (S08W38). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, under the continuing influence of weak high speed stream effects from a coronal hole. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the first two days. Isolated active conditions are possible during the first day, as the weak coronal hole effects wane. By day three, active to minor storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods, are possible due to the expected shock arrival from the CME activity described above in section 1A. III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Aug 147 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 015/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 012/012-015/015-025/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/35 Minor storm 10/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/10 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/40 Minor storm 15/15/25 Major-severe storm 05/05/10