:Product: 20010819RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only a few small subflares occurred, none of which with significant x-ray output. Region 9585 (N15E37) continued to grow but at a slower pace. New Region 9588 (S32W55) emerged on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV solar energetic proton event ended (start 16/0135 UTC, 493 pfu peak at 16/0355 UTC, and end 18/1845 UTC). IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Aug 158 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 010/012-010/010-010/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01