:Product: 20010824RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M1/Sf flare occurred at 24/0913 UTC in Region 9591 (S18E42). This area also produced several C-class flares throughout the day. The 9591 sunspot group remains an elongated F-type configuration of about 700 millionths area and moderate magnetic complexity. Other disk regions were relatively inactive. New Regions 9594 (N37E05) and 9595 ( N16E27) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with additional M-class flares from Region 9591 and the possibility of a major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active due to coronal hole effects. A solar energetic proton event at greater than 10 MeV is possible if 9591 generates a major flare. III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug Class M 50/60/70 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Aug 175 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 180/190/200 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 010/010-015/012-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/25 Minor storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01