:Product: 20010825RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 9591 (S19E32) produced several M-class flares and an X5/3b event at 25/1645 UTC. The event had an associated 8100 sfu tenflare and a Type II and Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO images observed a well defined coronal mass ejection with this event. This region continues to develop and retains a large Fki beta-gamma-delta configuration. Region 9596 (N23E79) was numbered today. The observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux for today may also be slightly enhanced as a result of the earlier event. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high with Region 9591 producing M-class flares and a chance for another major flare from this region. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active through the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for 26 August due to possible coronal hole affects. Active to minor storm conditions are expected for 27 and 28 August as a result of the X-class event at 25/1645 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event is also possible on 26 August from the activity today. III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug Class M 75/75/75 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 75/75/50 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Aug 199 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 015/015-035/035-030/030 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/40/35 Minor storm 05/30/20 Major-severe storm 01/20/10 B. High Latitudes Active 30/45/40 Minor storm 10/35/25 Major-severe storm 05/20/15