:Product: 20010826RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated M1 observed at 26/1306 UTC. Region 9591 (S19E18) continued to produce C-class flares during the period. This region maintains its large area (740 millionths) and a beta-gamma-delta Fki configuration. New Region 9597 (N17E48) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9591 is capable of M-class events with potential to produce a major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be active to minor storm conditions on 27 and 28 August as a result of the X5 event from 25 August. Major storm conditions are possible at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 29 August. III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug Class M 75/75/75 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Aug 190 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 035/035-030/030-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/25 Minor storm 30/20/05 Major-severe storm 20/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/40/30 Minor storm 35/25/10 Major-severe storm 20/15/05