:Product: 20010828RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. There were three M-class events observed during the period. Region 9591 (S19W06) produced an M1/1N at 28/0012 UTC. Region 9601 (N12E73) produced an M1/Sf at 28/0840 UTC and an M1/Sn at 28/1611 UTC with an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 9591 remains the largest region on the disk and maintains its Fki beta-gamma-delta configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. A major flare is possible from Region 9591. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug Class M 80/80/80 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Aug 199 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 205/205/210 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 014/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 010/010-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01