:Product: 20010830RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9591 (S20W33) produced an M1/2n flare at 30/1757 UTC. This region retains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification and is showing imminent signs of producing a possible major flare. Former Region 9600 merged with Region 9601 to produce a beta-gamma-delta group located at (N14E69). This region produced a M3/Sf with an accompanying Type II radio sweep (1500 km/s) at 30/2038 UTC. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be high. Regions 9591 and 9601 are both capable of producing major flares during the forecast period. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. A small solar wind shock was recorded by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 1330 UTC. This corresponding shock arrival at earth produced a sudden impulse at the Boulder USGS magnetometer at 30/1413 UTC. This minor shock produced isolated active conditions at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on the first day of the forecast period with active conditions expected on the second and third day due to recurrent coronal hole effects. III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Aug 199 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 156 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 010/010-015/015-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/30 Minor storm 10/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01