:Product: 20010901RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Sep 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event. At 31/2243 UTC, Region 9601 (N14E18) produced an M2.9/2n flare with an accompanying 540 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (velocity est. 700 km/s). LASCO imagery shows that what appears to be a non earth-directed CME was also produced by this flare. Since that event, only sporadic, minor C-class flares were reported during the period. Region 9601 increased in sunspot count and developed a delta magnetic configuration late in the period. Region 9591 (S20W46) continued to show signs of decay, but still retains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. One new region was numbered today: 9602 at (S08E30). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain moderate to high. Regions 9591 and 9601 are both capable of producing M-class events and possibly major flares during the forecast period. Region 9591 should remain on the visible disk until 04-05 September. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active due to recurrent coronal hole effects as well as possible transient shocks in the solar wind. Isolated minor storming conditions are possible at higher latitudes. III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Sep 184 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 157 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 015/025-015/020-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor storm 20/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01