:Product: 20010902RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Sep 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Regions 9591 (S18W65) and 9601 (N14E08 produced three M-class events between them. The largest was an M3/2n at 02/1348 UTC from Region 9591. Both of these regions have decayed slightly since yesterday, but Region 9591 continues to retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. New Region 9603 (S08E64) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high with Region 9591 and 9601 capable of producing a major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible for September 03 and 04. III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Sep 183 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 157 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 015/015-012/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01