:Product: 20010905RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Sep 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 9601 (N13W38) produced an M6/2b flare at 05/1432Z. Moderate centimetric radio bursts including a 770 sfu Tenflare accompanied this event. This region was also responsible for an M3/1n flare at 04/2159Z. Region 9606 (S17E32) produced an M1/1n at 05/1913Z. New Region 9608 (S24E70) was numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a detailed analysis of this region, but space based imagery indicates significant complexity exists. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Regions 9601 and 9608 will likely produce C and M class flares. An isolated major flare is possible from either region. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep Class M 75/75/75 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Sep 218 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 215/215/215 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 011/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 010/010-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01