:Product: 20010909RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Sep 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was high due to an M9/2N flare at 09/2045 UTC in Region 9608 (S27E18). This flare was quite impulsive and located in centers south and east of the large trailer spots. An M3/1N flare occurred at 09/1516 UTC in Region 9607 (S17E03). Region 9607 is at the northwest end of the elongated 9608/9607 sunspot complex. This area continues to grow in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. Decaying Region 9601 (N13W93) is rotating out of view without producing significant flares during the past day. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high with M-class flares and possibly another major flare in the 9607/9608 complex. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled barring any influence from the 09/2045 UTC major flare discussed in Part IA. This forecast may be modified after CME information is received from the SOHO spacecraft later this evening or tomorrow. A solar energetic particle event is currently not expected from this major flare. III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep Class M 90/90/90 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Sep 236 Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 230/220/220 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 008/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 008/010-008/012-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01