:Product: 20010910RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Sep 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. Five C-class flares occurred during the period with the largest being a C8/1N at 10/0518 UT from region 9608 (S27E07). This region continues to increase in area and magnetic complexity. Region 9610 (S13E22) and 9611 (N10W64) have increased in area. Region 9601 has rotated beyond the west limb without significant activity. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9608 and nearby neighboring regions have the potential to produce isolated major flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly quiet, with the possibility of isolated active conditions in response to coronal hole effects on day two and three. III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep Class M 90/90/90 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Sep 245 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 245/245/235 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/010-012/015-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01