:Product: 20010915RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Sep 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. There were three low level M-class events during the period. Region 9608 (S28W54) produced an M1/1n at 15/1128 UTC. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep with an approximate speed of 700 km/s. Data from SOHO/LASCO indicated a CME visible with this event. Region 9616 (S12W68) produced an M3 at 14/2150 UTC which was confirmed by the LASCO/EIT images, and an M1/1f at 15/1559 UTC. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Region 9608, 9610 (S13W46), or 9616. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 15/1435 UTC with a peak flux observed at 15/1455 UTC of 11 pfu. Protons remain enhanced at this time. The most likely source of this activity was the CME from Region 9608 at 15/1128 UTC mentioned in Part IA above. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 18 September as a result of today's CME activity and a recurrent high speed stream in the solar wind. The greater than 10 MeV protons should remain enhanced for the first day of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep Class M 80/80/80 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 90/10/10 PCAF in progress IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Sep 219 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 165 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 015/015-012/012-020/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05