:Product: 20010916RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Sep 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 9608 (S29W64) produced an M5/2n at 16/0353 UTC. New Regions 9620 (N12E70) and 9621 (N16E76) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with Regions 9608, 9610 (S12W59), and 9616 (S12E16) are capable of producing a major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event on 15 September ended at 15/1545 UTC. The event began at 15/1435 UTC and had a peak flux of 11 pfu at 15/1455 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 18 and 19 September as a result of the CME that occurred on 15 September and a recurrent high speed stream in the solar wind. III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep Class M 80/80/80 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Sep 207 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 200/195/195 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 165 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 012/012-020/020-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05