:Product: 20010920RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Sep 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. A M1.5/Sn occurred in new Region 9631 (N08W15) which has been active since its emergence. Six C-class flares also occurred during the period, the largest a C7.8 in Region 9628 (S18E51). Region 9628 has increased in magnetic complexity to a Beta-Gamma and increased in spot count. Region 9620 (N12E17) has also increased in magnetic complexity to a Beta-Gamma. New Region 9630 (N27W36) and Region 9632 (S18E76) were also numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9628 and Region 9620 are becoming more complex and could produce M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions may occur early in the period due to a CME observed on 18 SEP O1. III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep Class M 80/80/80 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Sep 227 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 230/230/230 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 165 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 012/015-012/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 20/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01