:Product: 20011001RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was high today. A long-duration M9 flare occurred at 01/0515 UTC in the vicinity of Region 9628 (S22W91). This flare produced a full halo CME from LASCO imagery as well as a proton injection. Multiple discrete frequency radio emissions were associated with the event. EIT imagery depicted an excellent view of prominent loop structure that lasted through the X-ray enhancement. Region 9628 is currently exiting the visible disk. Four new region's were assigned today, Region's 9643 (S26W26), 9644 (N20W04), 9645 (S18E03), and 9646 (N12E42). All were at least of Beta class magnetic complexity. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are probable. The is also a chance for a major flare from Region 9632 (S21W73) as it begins to exit the disk. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm levels due to a CME passage. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 01/0255 UTC and continued at time of issue. At the close of period the greater than 10 MeV flux was at 462 pfu and increasing. This proton event was in response to the M9 flare mentioned above. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next two days due to CME effects. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on the final day of forecast. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct Class M 75/75/70 Class X 20/20/10 Proton 15/15/05 PCAF In Progress IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Oct 217 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 210/205/205 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 177 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 035/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 020/020-030/030-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 50/35/40 Minor storm 25/40/20 Major-severe storm 20/25/10 B. High Latitudes Active 50/50/40 Minor storm 35/35/25 Major-severe storm 15/15/10