:Product: 20011002RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate with 3 M-class flares and 3 C-class flares. A M1.2/SF occurred in Region 9632 (S21W89) at 01/2340 UTC and a M1.0/SF in Region 9641 (S14E07) at 02/1123 UTC. A M1.4 occurred with no optical correlation. Two new regions were numbered today, Region 9647 (S16E31) and Region 9648 (S04E78). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels. Region 9632(S21W89) has major flare potential for the first day of the period. Region 9636 (N14W41) remains a beta-Gamma configuration and has M-class flare potential. Old Region 9608 is due to return on the first day of the period as Region 9632 rotates beyond the west limb. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity reached minor storm level. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 2360 PFU 02/0810 UTC. Flux levels declined over the remainder of the period, but remained at event levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible. Analyst of the CME that occurred at 01/0530 UTC indicates it was likely a backside event and will have limited impact. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the period. III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct Class M 75/75/70 Class X 20/20/15 Proton 15/10/05 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Oct 201 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 205/195/190 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 025/050 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 015/020-015/040-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 50/40/15 Minor storm 30/20/05 Major-severe storm 15/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 60/40/25 Minor storm 30/25/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/05