:Product: 20011003RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low with Region 9632 rotating beyond the west limb today. Region 9648 (S05E64) produced the largest flare during the period, a C8/SF at 02/0101 UTC. Region 9636 (N13W56) produced C6/SF occurring at 03/0643 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 558 km/s. A C-class flare was recorded coming from Region 9645 (S18W27) and an optical flare was also seen coming from Region 9634 (N11W63). Two new regions were numbered today, 9649 (S06E70) and 9650 (S12E72). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be moderate. Region 9636 is capable of producing M-class flares. Old Region 9608 is returning on the southeast limb. It has a history of producing M-class activity as well. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A CME passage resulting from the M9 flare and associated activity on the southwest limb early on the 1st is suspected of being the source. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu. Flux levels remained above event level at time of bulletin issue. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first day as CME effects subside. Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail on the last two days of period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end during day one of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct Class M 75/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 99/75/25 PCAF Yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Oct 192 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 195/210/210 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 179 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 024/043 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 035/055 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 015/020-010/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/15/15 Minor storm 40/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/25/15 Minor storm 50/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01