:Product: 20011004RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 9636 (N13W70) and 9645 (S17W41) produced C2/Sf events early in the period. Several Type III radio sweeps and discrete frequency radio bursts made up the rest of today's activity. The partial halo CME seen on EIT imagery yesterday appears to have been caused by a back-side source. Region 9636 and Region 9641 (S13W19) both showed an increase area coverage of their respective spot coverage today. Three new groups were numbered today, Region 9651 (S22W12), Region 9652 (N22E14), and Region 9653 (S23E76). Region 9653 has a penumbral spot that can be seen rotating onto the east limb and has a latitude of that in which old Region 9608 had as it departed the west limb. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9636 and Region 9645 remain capable of producing M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu. Flux levels remain above event level at time of bulletin issue. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods possible early on the first day of forecast period due to CME passage. III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 99/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Oct 187 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 180 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 026/053 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 010/010-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01