:Product: 20011005RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Multiple minor C-class flares occurred from several regions. Regions: 9641 (S13W34), 9650 (S14E44), and 9636 (N13W82) all produced small C-class flares. Type III radio sweeps and several discrete radio bursts made up the rest of the day's activity. New Region 9654 (N07E06) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. M-class activity is possible from Regions 9641, 9645, and 9653. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period at mid-latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, at geosynchronous orbit, event ended at 05/0330 UTC. The proton event peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct Class M 30/25/25 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Oct 177 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 180 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 009/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 008/008-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01