:Product: 20011006RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event during the period. An optically uncorrelated M2 flare occurred at 06/0525 UTC. This event also produced a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) off of the sun's west limb as seen in LASCO imagery. This CME should not be geoeffective. Region 9641 (S13W48) produced a C3/1f flare at 05/2120 UTC. This event also produced a south-west oriented CME. Again, this CME should not be geoeffective. The only other activity of note during the period was a C3/1f flare from Region 9648 (S07E22). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mostly low with an isolated chance of an M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at elevated levels but below the proton event threshold of 10 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Active conditions are possible on the third day due to a recurrent coronal hole and its resulting high stream impacting earth. III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Oct 180 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 181 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 008/012-008/012-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/25 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/30 Minor storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01