:Product: 20011007RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Only a few minor C-class flares occurred during the period. One event of note, was a 12 degree filament (centered at S21E12) that erupted between 07/1643 and 1651 UTC. An associated long duration C2 x-ray flare and an optical sub flare occurred in the area of the filament's eruption. LASCO/EIT imagery has not updated sufficiently, to be able to ascertain at this time, if a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was created from the disappearing solar filament (DSF). Due to the central location of the DSF, an accompanying CME could very possibly be geoeffective. Two new regions were numbered: 9655 (S21E52) and 9656 (S21W13). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels. Isolated M-class events are possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at elevated levels but below the proton event threshold of 10 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible on the second day of the forecast due to a small recurrent coronal hole and its associated high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Oct 173 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 182 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 008/010-015/015-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/20 Minor storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/25 Minor storm 05/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01