:Product: 20011009RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9653 (S22E11) produced an M1/2f flare at 09/1113 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 504 km/s. A Type IV radio sweep also accompanied this flare. Earlier in the period, Region 9657 (N23E58) produced a C7/Sf flare at 09/0741 UTC, which also had an associated Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 585 km/s. The rest of the day's activity consisted of minor C-class and optical sub-flares. New Region 9658 (S14E68) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9653 remains capable of producing M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. High speed stream effects are believed to be responsible for the elevated field levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through day one due to high speed coronal hole effects. Active to minor storm conditions are possible late on day two through day three due to CME effects associated with the M1/2f at 09/1113 UTC. III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Oct 176 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 182 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 012/015-015/015-025/030 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/50 Minor storm 10/20/30 Major-severe storm 01/15/20 B. High Latitudes Active 35/45/45 Minor storm 15/25/35 Major-severe storm 01/15/20