:Product: 20011010RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. Region 9658 (S13E54) was the most active region producing three minor C-class flares. Region 9653 (S21W02) and Region 9657 (N23E44) also produced minor C-class events or sub faint flares. New Region 9659 (N04E19), Region 9660 (N12E20), and Region 9661 (N12E76) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9653 and 9658 have the potential to produce M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. High speed coronal hole flow diminished throughout the day. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storms levels. The CME from 09/1113 UTC is expected to arrive late on day one or early on day two. A coronal hole will also rotate into geoeffective position by day three and may keep activity enhanced. III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Oct 179 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 183 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 016/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 015/015-025/025-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/50/45 Minor storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 10/15/15 B. High Latitudes Active 45/45/45 Minor storm 25/35/35 Major-severe storm 15/20/20