:Product: 20011011RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9657 (N19E23) produced a C4/SF flare at 11/0412 UTC. Region 9661 (N16E69) also produced minor C-class flares. Limb proximity still hinders a more thorough analysis, but this region does appear to be a moderately complex group nearing 500 millionths of white light area. New Region 9662 (N09E42) and Region 9663 (S13E67) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to at low to moderate levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions persisted until 11/1700 UTC when a 11 nT sudden impulse was observed. Active to minor storming conditions have persisted since the shock which is believed to be associated with the 09/1113 UTC M1/2f flare and CME. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storming levels with isolated major storm conditions through day one. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and three as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position. III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Oct 175 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 183 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 025/020-015/015-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 50/45/45 Minor storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 15/15/10 B. High Latitudes Active 45/45/40 Minor storm 35/35/30 Major-severe storm 20/20/15