:Product: 20011013RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare was a C5/Sf at 13/0523 UTC in Region 9658 (S15E18). Other activity was inconsequential. Region 9661 (N15E42) is the largest, most complex active region on the disk as a moderately-large, beta-delta sunspot group. However the group has yet to produce significant activity. New Region 9665 (S26W57) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class flares should continue and M-class flares are possible. Region 9661 appears to have potential for an isolated major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active over the past 24 hours, although quiet to unsettled conditions have prevailed for most of the UTC day of 13 October. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Oct 180 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 184 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 018/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 008/010-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01