:Product: 20011014RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only a few, small C-class flares were observed, mostly in Region 9661 (N15E30). This remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk and has maintained its beta-delta magnetic configuration. New Regions 9666 (S12E31) and 9667 (N24E73) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9661 appears to be capable of an isolated major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Oct 192 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 200/205/205 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 185 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01