:Product: 20011015RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. X-ray background levels continue at the C-class threshold with several superposed C-class flares, mostly in Region 9661 (N15E17). This sunspot group remains the largest and most active group on the disk. It is a moderately large E-type group which has steadily, but slowly, grown in area and magnetic complexity since its arrival on the disk. New Regions 9668 (N29E01) and 9669 (N13E70) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9661 appears capable of an isolated major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A single active period (15/0300-0600 UTC) occurred at many locations. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Oct 193 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 185 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 008/008-008/008-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05