:Product: 20011016RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9661 (N16E04) produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C6/Sf at 16/1926 UTC. This region has continued to grow in areal coverage and spot count, and also has exhibited greater magnetic complexity over the last 24 hours. Other minor C-class flares also occurred throughout the period. A filament centered near S35W34 disappeared at about 15/2100 UTC, however no associated CME activity was apparent in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. New Region 9670 (S16E67) was numbered today, indicating the expected return of old Region 9628/9632 complex. Limb proximity prevents full analysis of the new region's characteristics. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9661 continues to show the potential to produce an isolated major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring the occurrence of an earth directed CME. III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Oct 207 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 215/215/220 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 186 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/008-008/012-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05