:Product: 20011027RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9672 (S18W53) and Region 9678 (N07W07) produced 6 C-class flares. Region 9682 (N12E45) produced the largest flare, a C7/Sf at 27/1529 UTC. Region 9672 remains complex with only a minor reduction is area coverage to 450 millionths. Region 9678 has ceased its rapid growth but remains complex and has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 9682 has shown significant growth and increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. New Region 9684 (N05E78) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9672, 9678, and 9682 all have the potential for a major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The CME shock from the X1/2b flare on 25/1502 UTC is expected early on the first day of the period. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on the first day of the period with possible major storm levels at the higher latitudes. Quiet to Active levels are expected on day two and three of the period. III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct Class M 75/70/70 Class X 35/30/30 Proton 20/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Oct 247 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 250/245/245 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 199 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 035/030-015/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 50/40/30 Minor storm 30/20/10 Major-severe storm 20/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/30/25 Minor storm 35/20/15 Major-severe storm 20/10/05