:Product: 20011028RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9682 (N12E32) produced three M-class events during the period. Regions 9672 (S18W67) and 9678 (N07W21) are both complex regions and possess a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 9684 (N06E69) has more than tripled its area since yesterday and now has an area coverage of 510 millionths with ten spots visible. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Regions 9672, 9678 and 9682. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to major storm conditions. A shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 28/0242 UTC and created a sudden impulse of 33 nt at the Earth at 28/0318 UTC. This shock is believed to be associated with the CME from 25 October. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible for 29 October. III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct Class M 75/75/75 Class X 35/35/35 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Oct 227 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 230/230/225 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 200 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 035/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 012/015-010/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01