:Product: 20011029RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate to high. Several M-class events occurred during the period. Region 9682 (N12E18) produced the largest of these with an M3/1f at 29/1113 UTC. The event had an associated Type II radio sweep with a speed of 609 km/s. This region has grown in both area and sunspot count since yesterday and retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is also a possibility of a major flare from Region 9682. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov Class M 80/80/80 Class X 35/35/35 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Oct 216 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 210/205/200 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 201 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 034/041 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/010-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01