:Product: 20011030RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9682 (N12E04) has continued to produce high C-class and low M-class events during the period. The largest was an M3/1n at 30/0836 UTC. The region continues to grow in area, sunspot count, and magnetic complexity. A long duration C9 event occurred at 30/2032 UTC. SXI images indicate the possible source being a CME from behind the southeast limb of the sun. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A major flare is possible from Region 9682. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov Class M 80/80/80 Class X 35/35/35 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Oct 226 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 205/200/195 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 202 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 018/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-010/015-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01