:Product: 20011031RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Oct 31 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9682 (N11W10) produced an M3/1n event at 31/0809 UTC. This region has an Ekc spot classification and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered today as Regions 9685 (N05E68) and 9686 (N16E68). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a continued possibility for a major flare from Region 9682. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A weak shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 31/1253 UTC, followed by a 6 nt sudden impulse at 31/1352 UTC observed on the Boulder magnetometer. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible on November 1 resulting from a CME observed on October 29. III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov Class M 80/80/80 Class X 35/35/35 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Oct 221 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 210/200/195 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 203 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 010/015-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01