:Product: 20011101RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been high due to five M-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was an M3/Sf at 1210 UTC from newly numbered Region 9687 (S19E71). Region 9687 produced three additional M-class events and exhibited frequent brightenings throughout the day. An additional M-class event (M1/Sf) came from Region 9678 (N07W75) at 0653 UTC. Region 9682 (N11W22) continues to dominate the disk in terms of apparent size and magnetic complexity, and also exhibited occasional flare activity during the day, some of which were occurring at the same time as flare activity in Region 9687. SXI imagery clearly indicated, however, that new Region 9687 was the dominant contributor to the X-ray flux during the four M-class events mentioned previously. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class events should continue, with regions 9687 and 9682 being the main contributors to activity. There continues to be a chance for an isolated major flare event or proton producing event during the next three days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. Approximately five hours after yesterday's shock at 31/1352 UTC, the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward and maintained moderately strong negative values (-8 to -12 nT) from 31/1810 UTC until around 01/1710 UTC. This led to mostly active levels, with a minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC. At forecast issue time activity had declined to unsettled and Bz was weakly northwards. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov Class M 90/90/90 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Nov 236 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 225/225/230 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 204 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 012/012-012/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/05