:Product: 20011102RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. There were two M-class events during the past 24 hours. The first was an M1/1f at 2352 UTC from Region 9682 (N12W37), and the second was an M1/Sf at 0809 UTC from Region 9687 (S19E61). Region 9682 continues to dominate the disk in size and complexity. Region 9687, however, has exhibited more frequent flare activity. Region 9684 (N06E00) appears to be growing slowly and is developing some magnetic complexity. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated major flare event during the next three days. Regions 9682 and 9687 are considered to be the most likely sources for energetic activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov Class M 90/90/90 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Nov 214 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 215/215/220 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 205 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 015/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 008/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 012/008-010/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 10/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 10/10/05