:Product: 20011110RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 9690 (S18E04) remained the most impressive and active sunspot group on the disk. It produced occasional flares including two low-level M-class associated with minor radio emission. This region remained large and magnetically complex, but showed some signs of decay in the leader portion of the group. However, a magnetic delta configuration persisted within its trailer spots. Region 9692 (N06W51) showed an increase in area and magnetic complexity, but produced no flares. New Regions 9695 (N11E68) and 9696 (S05E68) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9690 is expected to produce M-class flares. It is also capable of producing a major flare. Region 9692 may produce an M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 04/1705 UTC ended at 10/0715 UTC. The maximum for this event was 31,700 PFU at 06/0215 UTC, making it the largest greater than 10 MeV proton event of the current sunspot cycle. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare during the period. III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov Class M 90/90/90 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Nov 246 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 245/250/255 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 212 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01