:Product: 20011112RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to a single M-class event. Region 9692 (N07W78) produced an M1/1b flare at 12/0757 UTC. Region 9690 (S18W22) remains the largest and most complex sunspot group (1180 millionths with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification). Although this region only produced isolated C-class events during the period, further M-class and possibly X-class events are possible. Two new regions were numbered: 9698 (S08W67) and 9699 (S24E64). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9690 remains capable of producing a major flare during the period. Region 9692 retains a slight chance of producing a major flare. Region 9692 will rotate off the visible disk in the next day. Old Region 9672 (S18, L=268) is due to return on 13 November. This region produced several M and X-class events during its last rotation. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov Class M 80/80/75 Class X 30/30/25 Proton 20/20/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Nov 227 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 230/235/235 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 214 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01