:Product: 20011113RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S18W34) produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 13/0626Z and a long duration C7/Sf flare at 13/1925Z. This region remains the largest and most active region on the visible disk with white light area coverage exceeding 1000 millionths. Some decay was observed over the past 24-36 hours with the delta configuration no longer obvious, but the region still retains significant magnetic complexity and size. New regions 9700 (S25W08) and 9701 (S33W03) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9690 will likely continue to produce C-class and M-class flares and still has potential to produce an isolated major flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Nov 232 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 220/220/220 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 215 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/008-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01