:Product: 20011114RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9690 (S17W48) produced several minor C-class flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 14/0924Z. This region continues to decay in size and has simplified somewhat in magnetic complexity. A C5 flare was observed on the SW limb at 14/1802Z. Region 9697 (N12E34) produced occasional minor C-class flares this period, including a C2/1f flare at 14/0102Z. Five new regions were numbered today: Region 9702 (N22W07), 9703 (N22E12), 9704 (S18E70), 9705 (N14E49), and 9706 (N15E65). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9690 still maintains potential for M-class activity and an isolated major flare. Region 9697 has a slight chance of producing an M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov Class M 80/80/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Nov 217 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 215 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 010/010-010/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01