:Product: 20011115RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S17W60) produced an M1/1f at 14/2211Z with minor centimetric bursts. Other minor C-class events were observed in this region which continues to gradually decay. Minor C-class flares were also observed in developing Regions 9703 (N23W01), and 9704 (S18E56). Region 9697 (N13E20) is in a slow growth phase and now exceeds 300 millionths of white light area coverage. Some plage fluctuations were observed, but no significant magnetic complexity exist at this time. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels. Region 9690 is the best source for an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions were predominant until a small sudden impulse (SI) of 6 nT was observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 15/1509Z. Unsettled to active conditions prevailed since the SI. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods at mostly higher latitudes. III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov Class M 50/50/40 Class X 15/15/05 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Nov 207 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 205/205/195 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 216 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/010-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 50/25/20 Minor storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 10/01/01