:Product: 20011116RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only isolated minor C-class activity was observed, the largest being a C2 flare at 16/0926Z from the NE limb. A considerable amount of surging was observed on the east limb near NO8. Region 9690 (S17W75) continues its decay phase as it approaches the west limb. Region 9704 (S18E41) continues to show some slow growth and now exceeds 400 millionths of white light area. New Regions 9707 (N14W24), 9708 (N01E05), and 9709 (N20E39), were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9690 still maintains potential for an isolated M-class flare as it rotates around the west limb. C-class activity is possible from Regions 9697 (N13E07), and 9704. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov Class M 45/40/40 Class X 15/10/10 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Nov 202 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 217 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01