:Product: 20011117RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9704 (S18E28) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 17/0525 UTC. This flare was accompanied by Type II/IV radio sweep events. Region 9697 (N13W06) also flared today, the largest being a C3/1f at 16/2146 UTC. Region 9690 (S18W80) is exiting the visible disk without incident. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9704 is the most likely source of M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A single period of active conditions occurred at many locations from 17/1200-1500 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Nov 199 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 217 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 008/010-008/010-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01