:Product: 20011118RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9704 (S18E16) continued to produce C-class subflares, the largest being a C7/Sn at 18/0919 UTC. This region has changed little since yesterday, maintaining moderate magnetic complexity. Region 9697 (N12W19) also produced subflares but none were associated with significant x-ray output. New Region 9710 (S10E46) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9704 is the most likely candidate for M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active by 20 November. This increased activity is anticipated in response to a CME associated with the M2/1n flare which occurred on 17 November. III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Nov 188 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 217 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 010/010-015/015-015/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05