:Product: 20011120RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 9704 (S18W10) continued to produce C-class subflares. This region maintains most of its sunspot area and magnetic complexity. Region 9697 (N12W45) is decaying and has not produced significant activity. New Region 9711 (S16W23) emerged on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9704 remains the most likely candidate for M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The CME that elevated activity levels yesterday has passed. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit has ended (start 19/1230, peak 34 pfu at 20/0010, and end 20/1420 UTC). IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Nov 185 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 218 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 010/010-010/010-010/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01