:Product: 20011127RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. There were numerous C-class flares observed during the period. The vast majority of these flares appeared to originate from source regions beyond the east limb (based on SXI imagery). Region 9715 (N05E30) produced a single optically correlated C6/Sf flare at 27/1552 UTC. This region has continued to show growth in magnetic complexity and areal coverage. Region 9715 remains the most noteworthy region on the visible disk. New Region 9717 (N06E78) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low to moderate levels. Region 9715 has the potential to produce isolated M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event (began 22/2320 UTC, max 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC) remains in progress although flux values have been oscillating across event threshold levels throughout the past ten hours of the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible during the forecast period due to a southern hemisphere coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 99/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Nov 190 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 195/205/210 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 217 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 004/005-008/008-006/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01