:Product: 20011129RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9715 (N05 E04) produced seven C-class flares and two M-class flares. The largest flare was an M5/1n at 29/1036 UTC. This region remains magnetically complex as a beta-gamma-delta configuration and has grown in area coverage, spot number and extent. Region 9715 produced two events with associated Type II Radio sweeps, an M1/Sf at 29/0149 UTC and a C7/Sf at 29/1405 UTC. Region 9717 (N04E53) and Region 9718 (S07E58) have shown some minor activity producing a single C-class flare and two C-class flares respectively.. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9715 has the potential to produce a major M-class flare or possibly an X-class flare. Region 9718 has also shown signs of growth and could produce M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Quiet levels are expected for the first day of the period. Late on day two or early on day three the CME Shock from the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to arrive at Earth. With the arrival of this shock the geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels with isolated minor storm conditions at higher latitudes. III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec Class M 80/75/75 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Nov 216 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 210/215/220 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 218 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-012/015-020/030 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/35/30 Minor storm 01/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/45/45 Minor storm 01/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/10/10