:Product: 20011130RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Nov 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9718 (S07E42) produced an M3/1n at 30/0106 UTC. Sympathetic flares were observed on NOAA/SXI test imagery between Region 9718 and Region 9720 (S18E46). Region 9715 (N05W11) remains magnetically complex with some small growth and produced three C-class flares. A disappearing filament occurred just northeast of Region 9715, near N18E17 at 30/0305 UTC. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9715, Region 9718 and Region 9720 have the potential for producing M-class flares. Region 9715 has the potential for an X-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. A minor transient passed the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 30/1728 UTC resulting in a 5 nT deflection in the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1809 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. The CME shock from the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to reach Earth mid day on the first day, producing active conditions late on day one and into day two of the period. Minor storm conditions are possible at the higher latitudes. III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Nov 226 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 215/220/220 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 218 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 012/015-020/030-008/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/20 Minor storm 15/10/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/45/30 Minor storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 10/10/01